Punchline at 0:40

Paul Reality Check

Stillwell notes that some talking heads are beginning to question whether or not American troops should occupy Korea, Japan or Germany indefinitely. This is a new development for Washington Insiders to broach such a sacrilegious idea because it aims a stake at the heart of where our Federal masters draw so much of their influence and power.

While some of the reason probably is the Ron Paul effect, I think a bigger reason is the dawning realization that the American economy is teetering on the brink of suffering a dramatic downturn. The costs of maintaining a huge military presence in the three countries noted above and the continuing fiasco in Iraq will quickly become too much to bear for the quickly devaluing dollar.

If the economy goes in the tank in '08 the easiest place to look to in the Federal budget to cut will be on the Empire Maintenance line.

Americans will ask, What is the Empire doing for me? And they'll answer, Well, not too much.

Then they'll ask, Do I want to maintain my social security disability pay/my soak the young medicare coverage/my daughter's ability to get Federal loans for college so I don't have to ante up? And they'll answer, Hell yes!

One Nasty Baby

The Patriot Act and Patriot Act II's evil child will soon become law if the House's 404-6(!) vote in its favor passes the Senate and the President's pen. That evil child is the Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act of 2007.

This devilish piece of legislation will officially extend the War on Terrorism to American citizens who are deemed radical violent terrorists. When reading the language in the bill it becomes very apparent that there is no specific definition of what a radical or violent terrorist is. That will allow government bureaucrats to have lots of fun with us in the coming years.

Once again,

404-6

That's a remarkably discouraging vote count. My god, you can really see what Ron Paul and his supporters up against.

Another Spike

Ask and ye shall receive.

Maryland Raises Taxes

Luckily for the Democrats the only people that will move to Pennsylvania and Delaware due to the newly passed tax bill increase are voters who would vote for less government. This demographic movement, which began in the 1950's with flight from Baltimore City into the neighboring counties and then from the neighboring counties into Delaware and Pennsylvania starting in the 1980's, allows the Democrats to continue to hold both houses of the legislature with fillibuster-proof majorities.

Oh, and they slipped the computer services tax back into the bill.

Maryland's sales tax would rise from 5 percent to 6 percent. The sales tax also would be extended to computer services - a key change that would raise an estimated $190 million. The computer services that would be affected include support services for computer systems or data processing facilities, custom computer programming, consulting services regarding computer systems design, and computer disaster recovery services.

Damned if we, our accountant or the Supreme Court will be able to tell if all, some or none of the family business will be subject to this new tax.

Ahhh, but that's exactly the point. The ability to make arbitrary rulings as a result of unclear laws has always been a great tool for those in power to employ.

Bright Red

Images from Moscow during the November, 7th 1975 celebration of some Communist victory. Unlike in America, fedoras still ruled the day.

Shortstop Chain Reaction

Edgar Renteria has already been moved. Now it's Orlando Cabrera getting moved to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for starter Jon Garland. What shortstop could be on the move next?

...the addition of Garland, a 28-year-old who went 10-13 with a 4.23 ERA last season, gives the Angels a rotation surplus that would enable them to package a young starter such as Santana or Saunders in a trade for a slugger such as Florida third baseman Miguel Cabrera or Baltimore shortstop Miguel Tejada.

It would be a great move for Oriole fans if Tejada could be flipped for Ervin Santana and a prospect. Even Tejada for Santana straight up would be acceptable.

Scotland On It's Own?

All the better for the world (including Americans) if Scotland and England break apart. With America's most powerful ally split in two, it's never-ending quest for world domination would be taken down another notch.

Alex Salmond, the Scottish First Minister, has predicted that Scotland would be independent within a decade.

The surprise forecast is the first time the SNP leader has set a concrete deadline for the break up of the 300-year Union since his party took power six months ago.

Early Prediction

The following are my predictions for Ron Paul in the Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada primaries. I'm going to retain the right to change these after the Boston Tea Party since the money raised from that day for the Paul campaign could be a major event that pushes Paul even higher.

But at the moment I see Paul generating 4% in Iowa, 22% in New Hampshire and 14% in Nevada. Iowa just seems too ideologically moderate and the demographic too old to go for a Paul candidacy. But good percentages in New Hampshire and Nevada seem doable for populations that have strong Libertarian streaks in them.

Smearing Paul

Eating my lunch at work in the cafeteria afforded me the opportunity to watch Fox News on one of the big-screen TV's. For the first time since probably the late 90's I saw a television report on domestic hate/terrorist groups. Neo-Nazis, Timothy McVeigh, Muslims, Militias and other baddies figured prominently in the piece.

Various commentators, politicians and bureaucrats were discussing the looming threat of a domestic terror attack from these groups that "hate" our country. Of course, no distinction was made of the fact that it is the government that is the main focus of their anger. There was also the talk of a possible alliance between the white domestic fringe groups and Muslim extremists from the Middle East.

I found the timing of this report to make perfect sense since the neo-conservative establishment
has recently begun to try and indirectly link Ron Paul to Neo-Nazi groups in an effort to slander his reputation.

This campaign against Paul is only just beginning and I expect it to get hotter in the next few weeks. Ultimately, though, I don't think the establishment will be successful with this line of attack. Since Paul has a palpable decency about him and a nearly pure freedom voting record in Congress these smears will quickly fall by the wayside since they are illogical. Add into that the quick-fire response of the internet to smears and distortions and the establishment will have to move onto a different smearing campaign.

Brave Development

The fact that the Braves are going to be increasing their payroll by millions of dollars is quite the unexpected development. Perhaps a run at Carlos Silva will be in the offing? I think he'd be a nice fit. Extending Mark Teixeira is probably a good chance now.

It's good to read this because the Braves will be able to hang with Philadelphia and New York for the forseeable future on the payroll front. And then there's Washington who's going to be gearing up their payroll over the next few years.

All in all the National League East should be a fun watch for the next few years. Here are ten reasons all under the age of 30 -- Hanley, Rollins, Zimmerman, Escobar, Wright, Reyes, Milledge, Cabrera (for the next two weeks at least), Howard and Teixeira.

Ron Paul Defines Chickenhawkism

From the Rolling Stone interview comes this deliciously accurate quote by Ron Paul.

Giuliani seems to be the warmonger in chief — leading the drumbeat for war with Iran. What would a Giuliani presidency mean for our national security?

If someone is unhappy with the Bush policy, they would find Giuliani's would be even more extreme. But since Giuliani is so anxious to go to war, somebody ought to ask him why he didn't go when he was called up instead of ducking it like some of those other chicken hawks — he took, what, four deferrals?

The kids today are expected to go because Giuliani likes this stuff. But whether it's Cheney or Giuliani, these guys think it's quite proper to go to war when they feel like it. But they never had to expose themselves.

Sabathia's Three Million Dollar Haul

The take on Sabathia's Cy Young Award win today from Baseball Prospectus. It's about the Benjamins, er, the innings.

Sabathia pitched 241 innings to Beckett’s 200.7, an advantage of more than 20 percent. He completed the 7th inning 24 times, as opposed to Beckett’s 15, a critical threshold for a team with a set-up man as effective as Rafael Betancourt, but inconsistent middle relief. As a result, Sabathia finished with a 65.2 Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) to Beckett’s 58.6. The voters have started to look at these statistics, and it’s giving them a more complete picture of pitcher performance.

Bannerman's Island

About 1-2 hours due east of where I grew up in upstate New York there exists a couple of regions whose best years have passed them by. The Catskill Mountains were the home of a great many resorts and weekend getaway spots for upscale northeasterners through the 1960's. And the Hudson Valley (due north of New York City) was home to what passed for much of the prominent landed aristocracy in the United States since the 1600's.

In my lifetime I've only known it as that creepy area between the most famous city in the world and the Adirondack Mountains. While the Catskills are filled with tired towns and empty hotels the Hudson Valley has a bit of old history still haunting the area today.

The B-Burgs may remember this area as the place that we saw the ghost of Mickey Mantle.

Revenue Pigs

A perfect example of the immorality of taxing authority occurred in Maryland over the weekend. Down in Annapolis the Democratic-dominated legislature was trying to finagle the Democratic Governor's $2 billion tax increase past the voters. For a state with a budget around $30 billion that's quite a nice increase for those pigs.

Anyway, there was a controversial tax on landscaping companies and computer service businesses that was set to be passed. The computer service tax rose the eyebrows of my wife and I since she has one of those evil computer service businesses. Well, someone (i.e. influential and vocal citizens/business leaders) got to the legislators before both of those were passed and they were stricken from the tax bill.

Great then! Whoops, not soooo fast. They quickly replaced those two newly stricken tax sources with a brand new one - a tax on all automobile repairs.

The legislature wised up and figured that old people that depend on landscapers as well as regular people might get a bit steamed about the tax increase and choose to lessen their reliance on those businesses. Over the long-term this might decrease tax revenue as Maryland citizens would scale back their use of these services. And in regards to the computer services tax that puppy would strike right at the heart of one of the most dynamic parts of the economy and surely raise the ire of businesses since those types of services can relocate to Pennsylvania or Delaware.

But the auto repair industry? That's an easy one for the politicians. It's a guaranteed consistent revenue stream. Auto repair shops can't easily relocate to nearby states and unlike computer services or landscaping, auto repair is an absolute necessity for consumers. Most people can mow their lawn and some can shop for computer services out of state. But in the case of one's car you gotta have wheels to make money, get those groceries and take grandma to her doctor appointments. Plus, what do the auto repair shops care? They know that their revenue stream is safe because people gotta have them wheels. Therefore, they don't really have a reason to lobby Annapolis and scare the politcians into moving on to some other industry to extort from.

So in the end, Maryland consumers are stuck and the politicians get to stick the tax bill right up their asses.

In the Money

If we assume the vig is 10% and the bets are $100 a game then the B-Burgs are up $80 on the year.

Reliever Romero Signs

J.C. Romero is the classic example of the up and down performance of relievers on a year-to-year basis. The key with this group is to find one who doesn't embarrass himself in the down years and can put up great years when he's on. Romero is one such reliever.

The Phillies just signed him to a 3-year $12 million contract today. For a guy who's thrown less than an inning an appearance the past three seasons that may be a bit steep but the Phillies desperately needed to get Brett Myers back into the starting rotation so they had to make sure their bullpen would be solid enough.

A positive note about Romero's up and down career is the fact that since 2002 he's only had one season in which left-handers have had a +.700 OPS against him.

A Six-Man Ro

I can say with near certainty that no major league team has ever employed a six-man starting rotation over the course of an entire season.

With the recent signing of Curt Schilling, though, it could become a possibility with the 2008 Red Sox. Boston GM Theo Epstein has said he's considering the idea. It would be constructed to provide plenty of rest for the oldsters, Curt Schilling and Tim Wakefield, in an effort to keep their arms fresh. While Taylor Buchholz and Jon Lester, the under age 25 set, would get plenty of rest to protect their young arms over the long season. Josh Beckett, the least likely to break down, would be kept on an almost full five man rotation schedule while Daisuke Matsuzaka would start a few less games than Beckett.

One possibility of how the rotation would be constructed would be to start Beckett 32 times with Matsuzaka starting 29 games. Lester would start 27, Schilling and Wakefield 25, and Buchholz would bring up the rear with 24 starts.

The Red Sox are an organization that's brave enough (i.e. handle the media criticism if it doesn't work) to give this a go. They'd also be an organization brave enough to move to a four man rotation if the personnel they had could make it work.

Great Job

By Ron Paul this morning.

The Next Push

With the 5th of November now in the past Ron Paul supporters can look forward to the 11th of November for the next fundraising push. They're looking for 10,000 pledges of $100 by the 11th to provide a cool $1 mil for the campaign on that day. Sitting at 571 pledges at the time of this writing the 10,000 looks a ways off but look at today's vertical trajectory.

Plus, an additional 245k has been donated today. I think you could say there's a bit of a buzz developing around Paul as people begin to look for a way to save their country from the rotten-to-the-core D.C. establishment.

Liberty's Pocketbook Just Got Bigger

After raising a little over $4 million dollars yesteday (November 5th), the Ron Paul campaign has pulled in $65,000 in the first hour of November 6th. One thing I hadn't thought of was the residual effect of a big 11/5 for Paul. With the publicity of the event hurtling through the internet the big dollars may continue to roll in for a number of hours or perhaps even days.

The $12 million 4th quarter goal is looking more and more feasible as each hour passes.

California's Got It Right

Drew Carey defends the civilizing practice of smoking marijuana for medical reasons. Contrary to the belief of many bureaucrats and the Federal Drug Enforcement Agency, it's the outlawing of marijuana use (for any reason actually) that is a mark of a society that is uncivilized.

Reason.TV has a nice way about it. First I've seen of it. Oh, and where did Carey's flat-top go?

This Fall's Baseball Book

This is cool. Jamey Newberg's been writing a yearly book providing a synopsis of all things Texas Rangers since 2000.

Class Moves Again

Edgar Renteria's trade to the Detroit Tigers for two prospects this week has kicked off baseball's off-season with a bang. Renteria has been a solid shortstop since his first year in the majors in 1996 and with 1,934 hits to his name after his age 31 season he looks like a good bet to reach 3,000 hits.

A pro's pro, Renteria has been willingly employed up and down batting lineups for four different teams throughout his career. Renteria's batted 2nd the most in his career -- 963 games. He's batted 6th and 7th the next most -- 273 and 245 games. He's also played in 200+ games batting 1st, 3rd and 5th in the lineup. Throughout all those changes Renteria has performed consistently at the plate as a good doubles, batting average and on-base average hitter. He'll serve as a nice upgrade to the Tiger offense and defense in '08.

One of the great things about successful veterans being traded for prospects is that many times it introduces me to minor league prospects I've never come across. With well over 4,000 minor leaguers plying their wares each year I'm bound to miss a few during my daily baseball studies. Two such prospects that I hadn't heard of are the two traded for Renteria -- Gorkys Hernandez and Jair Jurgens. Zach Jett provides a nice synopsis of the two. As Jett says this will help replenish the Braves somewhat depleted minor league system after the surge of Brave minor leaguers that graduated to the majors during the impressive 2005 season and the trade for Mark Texeira this summer that sent five Brave minor leaguers to Arlington.

The trade of Renteria also frees up money for the tight Atlanta budget so a free agent starting pitcher can be signed. And Yunel Escobar should slip in at short nicely for the Braves in '08. Especially at a sub 500k salary.

And what would a Brave's post be without comment from Rowland's Office regarding Renteria.

Still, it's sad to see such a classy pro leave so quickly. Has there ever been such an excellent, popular, solid citizen and winning player who's changed teams so often? Vagabonds like Sheffield and Lofton are fine players. But popular? Good in the clubhouse? Not quite.

Detroit will be Edgar's third club in four seasons, after stints here and in Boston. In appreciating Edgar, I struggled to recall standout moments. And maybe that's the point with Edgar. He's not a player who hits a game-winning homer, or makes a spectacular play that defines a season or career. Rather, he's a guy you need to watch daily to truly appreciate.

Edgar is more Columbo than Magnum PI: an unassuming genuis, a player of pure substance.

I would offer that Edgar, in his two seasons here, established himself as the best shortstop in Atlanta Braves history. It's no landslide and maybe you don't achieve that in just two seasons. However, I think it's proper in this case.

My sentiments exactly.

On Mark

Paul talks foreign policy in Iowa.

Abandoning Flint

Baltimore has some of the same themes as what is described in Bryan Finoki's post but it's not nearly as extreme as what has become of Flint. As seen in the pictures in the post, I have not come across abandoned strip malls or neighborhoods with the overgrowth that high in Baltimore.

There we were in this plain white vehicle truckin’ northbound on the I-69 with oversized Starbucks cups in our hands...whizzing past corn fields and Rest Areas and strange taxonomies of roadkill that accumulated every few hundred yards or so on the highway’s shoulders... squirrels, raccoons, mice, gophers, rabbits, cats, drivers (who knows what else) … the road to Flint was already a stroll through a long cemetery.When Wes, Nihal, and I headed up there a few weeks ago I couldn’t wait to pick up on that geography of urban ruins that weaves so many of my interests together about architecture, global economies, lost histories, indigenous culture, systemic poverty, the road trip, contexts of abandonment, informal communities, urban salvagers, and so on.