Thursday, June 14, 2007

Gordon's Comparables Paint Bleak Picture

Alex Gordon's had a very, very rough start to his major league career in Kansas City. But just how rough? Indeed, the .198/.305/.317/.622/64+ line is so bad that it would be of great concern if a utility infielder, career minor leaguer was putting up those numbers in his major league debut. But this is a stud hitting prospect who plays a corner position and has hit well his entire collegiate and professional career.

Using Baseball-Reference's Play Index, Chris J. has put together a list of players throughout the game's history who have played third base predominately in their rookie season, had an OPS+ down in the 60's or worse and had played in at least 50 games during their initial season. Gordon's OPS+ turns out to be the 12th worst on the list.

Most concerning is the list of comparables. Recent comparables are Doug Strange (1989-1998) who comes in with a career OPS+ of 69, George Arias (1996-1999) with a lifetime 66 OPS+ and Tracy Woodson (1987-1993) who managed to retire with a 70 OPS+. These three were 7th, 7th and 3rd round picks in their respective draft years while Gordon was the number two pick in the entire 2005 draft. So he comes in with a bit more in the way of expectations and past success then these three.

Ultimately, the course the Royals may be forced to take is to plop Gordon down in Triple-A Omaha for the second half of the season in the hopes of getting him back on track. Gordon played all of 2006 at Double-A Wichita and then made the big club out of spring training this year. He's never had Triple-A at-bats. Gordon's refined approach at the plate led so many of us to believe that if anyone could skip Triple-A and move directly to the majors it would be him. We may already be at the point where such a belief has been proven to be very wrong.

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